Tender Rejection Rates at 14%: What It Means for Your Rates

The Outbound Tender Rejection Index (OTRI) is a metric published by FreightWaves SONAR that measures the percentage of contracted freight loads that carriers refuse to haul. When a shipper has a contracted rate with a carrier, they send an electronic tender — essentially a load offer at the agreed contract price. If the carrier rejects that tender, it means they can find better-paying freight elsewhere, usually on the spot market. The OTRI is expressed as a percentage: an OTRI of 14% means that out of every 100 contract loads tendered, carriers are rejecting 14 of them. The higher the OTRI, the tighter the capacity market — carriers have enough alternative loads that they can afford to turn down contracted freight. A rising OTRI is one of the strongest leading indicators that freight rates are heading up, because shippers who cannot get their contracted carriers to accept loads must turn to the spot market at higher prices.

A 14% national OTRI is significant because it represents the highest level of tender rejections since mid-2022, before the freight recession pushed rejection rates down to the 3-5% range that characterized 2023 and most of 2024. Historically, when the OTRI crosses above 10%, it signals a shift from a shipper-friendly market (excess capacity, low rates) to a carrier-friendly market (tight capacity, rising rates). At 14%, carriers have enough pricing power that they are routinely walking away from contracted loads that do not meet their revenue expectations. The spot market is paying 20%+ above year-over-year levels, with DAT spot van rates averaging $2.41 per mile in February 2026 compared to $2.03 per mile in August 2025. When carriers can earn more on the spot market, they reject contract tenders — and that forces shippers to either raise contract rates or pay even higher spot rates.

Tender rejection rates vary significantly by region and are heavily influenced by local supply-demand dynamics. As of early 2026, the Midwest is leading with rejection rates around 18%, driven by manufacturing freight demand, agricultural exports, and limited carrier repositioning into the region during winter months. The Southeast runs slightly above the national average, benefiting from robust consumer goods distribution and port activity out of Savannah and Charleston. The West Coast tends to track close to the national average, with seasonal produce pushes spiking rejections during spring and summer. The Northeast is typically below average due to higher carrier density and shorter haul lengths. Reefer freight nationally is seeing rejection rates above 20%, reflecting both seasonal produce demand and the structural tightness in temperature-controlled capacity. Flatbed rejections are elevated in construction-heavy markets like Texas and the Mountain West. Understanding your regional OTRI matters because a national 14% might mean 8% in your area or 22% — and your negotiating strategy should reflect your actual market, not the headline number.

Tender rejection data is one of the most powerful negotiating tools available to carriers and owner-operators. When the OTRI is elevated, it means the market has shifted in your favor — shippers need trucks more than trucks need loads. Here is how to use it: First, reference specific data points in conversations with brokers and shippers. Saying 'the national OTRI is at 14% and my region is at 18%' is more persuasive than saying 'the market is tight.' Second, point to the DAT spot rate data. If spot van rates are at $2.41 per mile and a broker is offering you a contract at $2.10 per mile, you have clear evidence that your truck is worth more on the open market. Third, use the correlation between OTRI and future contract rate increases. Historically, sustained OTRI above 10% leads to contract rate increases of 8-15% within 90-120 days. Shippers know this — you should know it too. Fourth, be willing to reject loads that do not meet your target rate. When the OTRI is 14%, you are not the only carrier saying no — the market supports your position.

The OTRI is one of the strongest leading indicators of contract freight rate changes. Historically, there is a 60-120 day lag between sustained OTRI movements and corresponding changes in contract rates. During the 2020-2021 freight boom, the OTRI climbed above 25% and contract rates followed with increases of 15-25% over the following two quarters. During the 2023 freight recession, the OTRI dropped below 5% and contract rates declined 8-12% as shippers gained leverage. In early 2022, when the OTRI was last at the 14% level, contract rates increased approximately 10-12% over the following 90 days. The current 14% OTRI, if sustained through spring 2026, suggests contract rate increases in the range of 8-15% by mid-year. This is not a guarantee — external factors like the tariff situation, diesel prices, and seasonal patterns all influence the actual outcome — but the historical correlation is strong enough that both carriers and shippers use OTRI as a planning benchmark.

The optimal strategy depends on your operation, risk tolerance, and how long you expect the tight market to last. When tender rejection rates are at 14% and spot rates are 20%+ above year-over-year levels, the spot market is paying a premium. Carriers who run predominantly spot freight can capture that premium immediately — DAT spot van rates at $2.41 per mile represent real money compared to contract rates that were negotiated when the market was softer. However, spot-heavy strategies carry risk: if the market softens, you are the first to feel it. A balanced approach is often best. Use the elevated OTRI as leverage to renegotiate your existing contracts upward — aim for 8-12% increases and point to the data. Keep 30-40% of your capacity available for spot loads to capture premium rates on your best lanes. This gives you the stability of contract freight with the upside of spot premiums. If you are an owner-operator without contract commitments, this is a good time to work with a dispatcher who monitors rejection rate data by lane and positions you where rejections are highest — that is where the rate premiums are richest. Our <Link href='/services/' className='text-brand-500 hover:underline'>dispatch service</Link> does exactly that.